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In the News: Analysis--Gay marriage decision not working in Obama's favor so far

from The Los Angeles Times.

WASHINGTON -- It’s been one week since President Obama, prodded into action by Vice President Joe Biden’s remarks on a Sunday talk show, granted Robin Roberts of ABC News an interview in which he revealed his personal policy shift on gay marriage. Whether or not Obama’s decision, and the way it was handled politically, will make a difference on election day is still anyone’s guess — and may always be. Parsing reactions by millions of individual voters, particularly on an issue that ranks far below other concerns for most Americans, obviously involves a measure of guesswork.

That said, the first wave of polling is in, and the results aren’t looking particularly good for Obama. Taken together, four different national opinion surveys over the past week, by reputable organizations with good track records, indicate that the president’s stand could well hurt him politically. Unsurprisingly, the numbers are fairly close; but as often gets pointed out, tight elections are decided by small numbers of votes.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Obama comes from a new ABC/Washington Post poll, which found that independent swing voters had a slightly more favorable than unfavorable view of his position (though the results were a statistical tie, given the margin of error for that subgroup). ABC’s analysis, by statistician Damla Ergun of Langer Research Associates, pointed out that independents who reacted most strongly to the decision tilted against it, and that “strong sentiment can better predict voter turnout and vote preferences.”

A Gallup poll found that the overall change in public opinion was a” net minus” for Obama, though the organization cautioned that these results could change, depending on the degree to which same-sex marriage is, or is not, a campaign issue in the fall.

The latest New York Times/CBS poll showed that 26% of voters were less likely to support Obama as a result of his announcement, compared with 16% who said they were more likely to support him. But the small overall sample size and the lack of any valid sub-group data make those numbers fairly useless for purposes of predicting voter behavior. The poll did find, however, that a clear majority of Americans regarded Obama’s declaration of support for same-sex marriage as largely a political move, which doesn’t help him at all.

A fourth poll, by the independent Pew Research Center, found that 25% of Americans felt less favorably toward Obama, while 19% felt more favorably, as a result of his shift. But among independents, there was no measurable change. Nineteen percent regarded him more favorably, 19% less favorably, and 60% said the decision had no effect.

These numbers are only secondarily about overall attitudes toward the issue of gay marriage.  The New York Times poll, for instance, found that 38% of Americans favor allowing gays and lesbians to marry, though longer-term trends continue to move in the direction of overall public acceptance.

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In the News: Gay Prosecutor Is Denied Virginia Judgeship Despite Bipartisan Support

from The New York Times.

Virginia’s Republican-controlled House rejected the judicial nomination of a gay Richmond prosecutor early Tuesday morning, plunging the critical swing state into the middle of the national debate about the civil rights of gay Americans.

The prosecutor, Tracy Thorne-Begland, a former fighter pilot and Navy officer, failed to garner the majority of the 100-member House of Delegates that was required to secure the judgeship. Lawmakers in the House of Delegates voted 33 to 31 to support him, with 10 abstentions.

The vote, which took place after 1 a.m., after a number of delegates had already gone home, took lawmakers by surprise. Mr. Thorne-Begland’s candidacy had broad bipartisan support from the Courts of Justice Committee, which is charged with vetting judicial appointments, and many lawmakers assumed his appointment would be approved. Indeed, seven Republicans voted in favor of his candidacy.

But Mr. Thorne-Begland, 45, ultimately failed to draw the votes after lobbying from both the Family Foundation, a powerful conservative group that opposed his candidacy, and conservative lawmakers, who argued that his past indicated that he would press an activist agenda from the bench.

The rejection comes as the country is in the midst of a roiling debate over same-sex marriage that has placed the civil rights of gays and lesbians in the national spotlight. Last week, President Obama said he supported same-sex couples’ right to marry, a position that set off a frenzy of political soul-searching as Republicans and Democrats staked out their own positions. States, meanwhile, have been passing legislation banning same-sex marriage, most recently North Carolina last week. Others, including New York and Maryland, have passed laws legalizing it.

Mr. Thorne-Begland disclosed his sexual orientation as a naval officer nearly 20 years ago during an appearance on ABC’s “Nightline,” in a challenge to the military’s ban on service by homosexuals. He was discharged honorably from the Navy after the disclosure, reinstated by a federal court, and then discharged again under the subsequent “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. He also served on the board of Equality Virginia, a gay rights nonprofit group.

“The only conclusions I can come to is that he was not supported because he was gay,” said Delegate Charniele Herring, a Democrat who voted for him.

But conservatives, including Delegate Bob Marshall, a Republican from Prince William County, argued that those aspects of his biography meant that he would not be able to be impartial, and might even engage in activism, if he became a judge. Mr. Marshall, together with several fellow Republicans from his county, a number of them former military men, led the charge against Mr. Thorne-Begland on Tuesday morning.

...Mr. Thorne-Begland, who is raising twins with his partner, according to a biography that he provided, tried to allay concerns about impartiality, saying in a letter sent to Delegate David B. Albo, a Republican who is the chairman of the House Courts of Justice Committee, that if confirmed as District Court judge, he would “neutrally apply the laws.” He also pledged to stay out of politics and public discourse.

...Virginia is one of more than 30 states with a ban on same-sex marriage, and gay advocacy groups say the state’s record on civil liberties for gays and lesbians is spotty. House Republicans have twice blocked a bill that would protect state employees from discrimination by sexual orientation, according to James Parrish, executive director of Equality Virginia. The group issued a statement condemning Tuesday’s vote, saying it was the result of pressure by the Family Foundation.

...Mr. Thorne-Begland was being considered for a judgeship on the General District Court in Richmond, where he currently serves as a prosecutor. In a statement on Tuesday, he said only that he was “looking forward to continuing to serve the citizens of the city of Richmond and the great commonwealth of Virginia.”

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In the News: Governor Chafee renews call for lawmakers to pass gay marriage in R.I.

from Providence Journal.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Governor Chafee, signing an executive order recognizing out-of-state gay marriages Monday afternoon, renewed his call for state lawmakers to pass legislation allowing gay couples to marry in Rhode Island.

"We must continue to push for full marriage equality," he said to loud applause. "Let's change that soon."

He added that Rhode Island is "long overdue" in recognizing out-of-state gay marriages, considering four New England states are among those allowing gay couples to marry.

"We are the home of Roger Williams," Chafee said. "Come on."

House Speaker Gordon D. Fox and Senate President M. Teresa Paiva Weed have not committed to passing gay marriage legislation this year, and were not present at the Monday ceremony.

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In the News: GOP kills same-sex civil unions in Colorado

from The Associated Press via CBS News.

(AP) DENVER - A last-ditch effort by Colorado's governor to give gay couples in the state rights similar to those enjoyed by married couples failed Monday after Republicans rejected the proposal during a special legislative session.

Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper had said the special session was needed to address a "fundamental question of fairness and civil rights."

More than a dozen states allow either gay marriage or civil unions, including several that moved to pass such laws this year.

The debate in Colorado is playing out at a time when President Barack Obama became the first U.S. president to publicly endorse gay marriage. But North Carolina voters last week approved a constitutional amendment that bars civil unions and defines marriage as solely between a man and a woman.

Civil unions would grant gay couples rights similar to those belonging to married couples, including letting partners make medical decisions for each other. The protections also would enhance parental and inheritance rights.

The Colorado bill's demise was expected by Democrats, who have begun using the issue as a rallying cry to topple Republicans in the November elections. Republicans assigned the bill to the House State, Veterans and Military Affairs Committee, which voted 5-4 along party lines to kill the measure.

"My family is the same as every one of yours," said Rep. Mark Ferrandino, the Democrats' leader in the House and a gay lawmaker who co-sponsored the civil unions bill, moments before it was defeated.

Though the ending came as no surprise, the lead-up was emotional. Two Democratic lawmakers choked up before their votes. In the audience, Marq Shafer, 31, put his hand on his partner Cody Shafer's shoulder and nervously rubbed Cody Shafer's wedding ring.

...Republicans hold a 33-32 advantage in the House, but there was enough support for the civil unions bill to pass last week after three different committees gave their approval. The Senate had already passed the measure.

Democrats tried to force Republicans who control the calendar to bring up the bill for debate. But it became clear Republicans were filibustering by unnecessarily talking at length about other bills.

Republicans then halted work for hours, killing the bill and several others that needed a vote before a key deadline

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In the News: Obama calls for marriage equality, says 'I want everyone treated fairly'

from CNN.

(CNN) -- President Barack Obama touched on his recent announcement of support for same-sex marriage, saying at a New York City fundraising event Monday that he believes marriage equality "strengthens families."

"I want everyone treated fairly in this country. We have never gone wrong when we've extended rights and responsibilities to everybody," he said, drawing big applause. "That doesn't weaken families, that strengthens families."

Obama highlighted some of his administration's work in recent years, including the passage of health care reform and the end of combat in Iraq.

He also outlined goals he hopes to accomplish under a second term, including the repeal of the Defense Of Marriage Act, which the administration has already stopped defending.

...The event, held at the Rubin Museum of Art in Manhattan, was hosted by singer Ricky Martin and was sponsored in part by the Futuro Fund, an initiative by some Latino leaders to support Obama's re-election bid.

"We admire his courage, like the courage he showed last week in affirming his belief in marriage equality," Martin, who announced two years ago that he is gay, said on stage, prior to introducing Obama. "That is the kind of courage we expect from our president and that is why we support him."

Read the full article from CNN.
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